Sunday, September 18, 2011

My belated, sure to be wrong, Emmy predictions

So, the Primetime Emmy Awards air tonight at 8 on Fox. Yes, I realize that's just a few hours from now, but it's still not too late to make some last minute, sure to be wrong predictions. So here I go:
Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Drama
Kelly Macdonald, Boardwalk Empire
Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Margo Martindale, Justified
Michelle Forbes, The Killing
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
Should win: This is a very strong category, and I'd probably be happy with nearly any choice. Even as much as I came to hate "The Killing," I still thought Michelle Forbes did an excellent job. Reigning winner Panjabi, category vet Hendricks and newbie MacDonald were also all excellent (Baranski is someone I admire, but her part just isn't as showy as Panjabi's and her work isn't as deep as that of the other nominees). Still, the clear winner here is Martindale, whose Mags Bennett scored as one of the great TV villainesses of all time. Known for playing warm matriarchs, Martindale completely reinvented herself here, creating an indelible character.
She. Must.Win.
Will win: There's a good chance Martindale will win -- her performance is strong enough to overrule the fact that Emmy doesn't typically shower glory on FX shows -- but I'm thinking Emmy voters will give another statue to Panjabi. She's good, her show's one of the few strong network dramas and everyone loves a winner.
Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Comedy
Jane Lynch, Glee
Betty White, Hot In Cleveland
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live
Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
Should Win: I'm totally biased here. I love Sofia Vergara. I think she's the funniest actress in this category and, even when "Modern Family" isn't that strong, she always gets at least one laugh out of me. Plus, should she win, her speech will almost certainly be highly emotional, totally adorable and probably impossible to understand. I'd love her to win. However ...
Will Win: Lynch is the reigning champ (and Emmy host) and White is an industry darling who has made a huge comeback lately, so it will probably go to one of them. Lynch already has an Emmy and there has been some strong sentiment against her character this season, so I'm thinking White will win.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Josh Charles, The Good Wife
Alan Cumming, The Good Wife
Walton Goggins, Justified
John Slattery, Mad Men
Andrew Braugher, Men of a Certain Age
Should Win: Another strong category, with Charles being the only real questionable choice (I love him, but how did he get this slot over one of "Boardwalk Empire's" many supporting actors named Michael?). Still, Dinklage was possibly the best thing about the very good "Game of Thrones," so I'm pulling for him.
Will Win: Dinklage. "Game of Thrones" isn't getting best series, and this is a way for Emmy to acknowledge HBO's other new acclaimed drama.

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Comedy
Chris Colfer, Glee
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
Ed O'Neill, Modern Family
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
Should Win: Though I've soured a bit on "Glee," Colfer was one of the best parts of it, so I'm pulling for him. But ...
Will Win: With every adult male actor nominated, the odds are in "Modern Family's" favor. Ferguson submitted the Halloween episode, in which he dresses as Spiderman and does a lot of slapstick, which could net him the win this year.
Outstanding Actress in a Drama
Kathy Bates, Harry's Law
Connie Britton, Friday Night Lights
Mireille Enos, The Killing
Mariska Hargitay, Law and Order: SVU
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Should Win: I love Moss. I'd love to see her win. But she's not my favorite in this category. That would be Connie "Mrs. Coach" Britton, whose work in the final season of "Friday Night Lights" was typically moving, honest, and funny. Also, this is her last chance for a win, so my fingers are crossed.
Will Win: Though her show survived by the skin of its teeth, I'm really thinking Kathy Bates will win this. Emmy loves people who have won other awards, and she's a former Oscar winner. Emmy also loves David E. Kelley shows. So I think it would be an upset if Bates doesn't win. Sorry, Mrs. Coach.

Outstanding Actor in a Drama
Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Kyle Chandler, Friday Night Lights
Michael C. Hall, Dexter
John Hamm, Mad Men
Hugh Laurie, House
Timothy Olyphant, Justified
Should Win: Yet another strong category, and pretty much everyone would be a good choice (even Hall and Laurie, whose shows have slipped in favor over the years, are good actors doing strong work). But my heart is with Olyphant. He gave an absolutely searing performance on this season of "Justified," as he struggled to repair his broken marriage, grieve a beloved family member and fight the fearsome Mags Bennett.
Will Win: However, I think Olyphant's chances are minimal. One lead actor from an FX show has won this award, and it was Michael Chiklis in "The Shield's" first season. I'm thinking this could be Hamm's year, as he had some very strong episodes and -- more importantly -- he's not in the shadow of three-time winner Bryan Cranston, of "Breaking Bad," whose show is airing out of the window of eligibility this year.

Outstanding Actress in a Comedy
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Laura Linney, The Big C
Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly
Martha Plimpton, Raising Hope
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Should Win: I don't really watch "Raising Hope," but I've seen enough to know that the ever-fab Martha Plimpton is the best thing about it. So, I pull for her.
Will win: But you never bet against the Showtime ladies. Laura Linney is the latest gal to star in a Showtime dramedy, so I'm guessing she'll best fellow nominee Edie Falco in the category.

Outstanding Actor in a Comedy
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Louis C.K., Louie
Steve Carrell, The Office
Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Should Win: C.K. made a decent splash with his daring, excellent new FX sitcom, and I would love to see him get recognition.
Will Win: But come on. This was Carrell's last year on "The Office," and people loved his performance in his final episodes. And his speech will make great TV. He'll win.

Outstanding Comedy Series
Big Bang Theory
Modern Family
The Office
Parks and Recreation
30 Rock
Should Win: I'm not really sure. I don't watch "Parks and Recreation," which I've heard is the strongest show in this group, so I'm at disadvantage. Of the shows here I watch, "30 Rock" had the best season, so I go with that.
Will Win: But I'm thinking "Modern Family" will pull it out, despite a slightly disappointing sophomore season.
Outstanding Drama Series
Boardwalk Empire
Friday Night Lights
Game of Thrones
The Good Wife
Mad Men
Should Win: "Mad Men" was the strongest show in this group, as much as I liked the first seasons of "Boardwalk" and "Thrones," and the final season of "FNL." But ...
Will Win: I think Emmy is itching to give a statue to HBO, and it ain't giving the win to an ornate fantasy show. I really think "Boardwalk" will win.

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