My Emmy picks

I think we can all agree that this year's Emmy nominations, while overlooking a lot of great shows and performers, were a bit better than normal. After all, the academy finally gave nods to eternally snubbed "Friday Night Lights" leads Connie Britton and Kyle Chandler, and gave lots of love to some promising newbies, like "Glee" and "Modern Family."
But, no matter what they say, it's the win that matters. When the awards are handed out on Aug. 29, who will win? Here are my predictions on who will win in the major categories -- and my thoughts on who SHOULD win in the major categories.


Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Drama Series
Sharon Gless, “Burn Notice”
Rose Byrne, “Damages”
Archie Panjabi, “The Good Wife”
Christine Baranski, “The Good Wife”
Christina Hendricks, “Mad Men”
Elisabeth Moss, “Mad Men”
Who should win: I fail to be as enamored of Byrne, and her performance as scrappy attorney Ellen Parsons, as the Emmys are, but, otherwise, this is a strong list. Panjabi, Baranski, Gless, Hendricks and Moss all gave excellent performances on their respective shows, but my heart is with Hendricks, nominated for the first time for her role. She continues to make "Mad Men's" Joan a complicated, achingly sympathetic character.
Who will win: Emmy loves vets, so Gless or Baranski could get the win. However, Hendricks has been all over the place lately (Esquire, a controversial Emmy ad, that TV clip where the interviewer is knocked speechless by the thought of her taking a bath). I'm guessing the combination of exposure and a good performance will make her as irresistible to Emmy voters as she is to viewers.
Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Drama Series
Aaron Paul, "Breaking Bad"
Martin Short, "Damages"
Terry O’Quinn, "Lost"
Michael Emerson, "Lost"
John Slattery, "Mad Men"
Andre Braugher, "Men of a Certain Age"
Who should win: This is always the toughest category to predict, because it's always full of excellent performances. The closest thing to a slacker here is Emerson, as he was only in a few episodes of "Lost's" final season. So who do I want to win? Hmm. On one hand, I was blown away by O'Quinn's dual performance as both John Locke and the nefarious Smoke Monster. And Short gave a shockingly convincing dramatic performance as a sleazy but resourceful attorney on "Damages." But my heart belongs to Paul, who crushed his every moment as the damaged meth dealer Jesse on "Breaking Bad," and always holds his own with his co-star, double Emmy winner Bryan Cranston.
Who will win: Alas, Paul is still relatively unknown, and working on a little-watched cable show. I'm not sure Emmy is ready to embrace him yet. O'Quinn might get the win, as this was his swan song as Locke. But I'm thinking this is Short's to lose. Emmy likes a familiar face in a surprising place. Add in the fact that he actually gave a good performance, and I think he's close to a sure thing.
Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Comedy Series
Jane Lynch, "Glee"
Julie Bowen, "Modern Family"
Sofia Vergara, "Modern Family"
Kristen Wiig, "Saturday Night Live"
Jane Krakowski, "30 Rock"
Holland Taylor, "Two and a Half Men"

Who Should and Will Win:Let's be honest -- this category really boils down to a battle between Lynch and the two "Modern Family" ladies. Yes, Wiig, Krakowski and Taylor all have their moments, but they can't hold a candle to the other three. Bowen was a revelation, showing that she is, indeed, funny in addition to being a great straight woman. Vergara was not only dippily hilarious, she was pretty good at convincing us that a young bombshell could love the crusty Ed O'Neill. But I don't see how anyone can beat Lynch, whose portrayal of cutthroat cheer coach Sue Sylvester was pretty much the TV comedy performance of the year. She was great at both the broad humor of her role ("You think this is hard? Try auditioning for 'Baywatch' and being told they're going in a different direction! That was hard!"), she was also excellent in those moments when the curtain was pulled back to reveal that Sue is a real person. I don't see how Lynch can lose, but I also think she deserves every inch of that statuette.
Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Comedy Series
Chris Colfer, "Glee"
Neil Patrick Harris, "How I Met Your Mother"
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, "Modern Family"

Eric Stonestreet, "Modern Family"

Ty Burrell, "Modern Family"

Jon Cryer, "Two and a Half Men"

Who Should Win: Look, I love me some NPH, and Colfer is delightful new talent, but my heart lies with those three "Modern Family" boys. So which do I think should win? That's like asking me to pick my favorite child! Ferguson gave the most nuanced performance of the three, but Stonestreet and Burrell are the most reliable crack-ups. So,um, I pick Burrell...er, no -- Stonestreet! Wait, Burrell! Yes, Burrell. That's who I want to win. I think.
Who Will Win: Sadly, I think the "Modern Family" guys will cancel each other out. Worst case, that leads to another win for Cryer. But I'm thinking that, this year, the statuette goes to NPH.
Outstanding Actress In A Drama Series
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer"
Glenn Close, "Damages"

Connie Britton, "Friday Night Lights"
Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"

Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order: SVU"
January Jones, "Mad Men"
Who Should Win: First off, let me say that the failure to include Katey Sagal of "Sons of Anarchy" on this list almost totally invalidates it. I've finally gotten around to watching that show on DVD and, about 3/4 of the way through the second season, I'm blow away by Sagal's awesomeness. But whatever. At least Britton got a nod, and if I had my way, she'd win for her achingly effective performance as Tami Taylor.
Who Will Win: But come on -- Britton won't win! It's a miracle she even got nominated! However, the likely winner is the almost-as-worthy Margulies, who gave a shattering performance as the wife of a disgraced politician.
Outstanding Actor In A Drama Series
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad"

Michael C. Hall, "Dexter"
Kyle Chandler, "Friday Night Lights"

Hugh Laurie, "House"
Matthew Fox, "Lost"
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men"
Who Should Win:A tough bunch to pick from. Fox was heart-breaking in "Lost's" final season, and it's great to see Chandler finally get a nod. But Cranston is simply head and shoulders above nearly anyone on TV. Watching his Walter White transform from mild-mannered chemistry teacher to ruthless drug manufacturer has been one of TV's great pleasures. If there's justice, he'll pick up a third statuette.
Who Will Win: Having said that, Hall gave a good performance, too, in a buzzy "Dexter" season. Plus, he bravely battled, and recovered from, cancer and people like to reward courage in the face of suffering. I think he brings it home.
Outstanding Actor In A Comedy Series
Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory"

Larry David, "Curb Your Enthusiasm"

Tony Shalhoub, "Monk"
Steve Carell, "The Office"

Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"
Matthew Morrison, "Glee"
Who Should Win: "30 Rock" had a weak season this year, but Baldwin always manages to bring the goods. He's one of the most consistent performers on TV. Plus, he's never forced us to listen to him rap (I'm lookin' at you, Morrison).
Who Will Win: Baldwin is always the favorite here, but I'm thinking that, this year, Emmy pulls a fast one and gives the award to Shalhoub for his swan song performance as Adrian Monk.
Outstanding Actress In A Comedy Series
Lea Michele, "Glee"
Julia Louis Dreyfuss, "New Adventures of Old Christine"

Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie"

Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation"

Tina Fey, "30 Rock"

Toni Collette, "The United States of Tara"
Who Should Win: Look, I love Tina Fey, but this middling "30 Rock" season left me with some serious Fey fatigue. I'm actually pulling for Falco, who gave a bracing, funny performance as troubled nurse Jackie Peyton.
 Who Will Win: I'm thinking Falco, unless Emmy gives a consolation prize to Louis Dreyfuss or follows the lead of Oscar and rewards the category's hot new star, Lea Michele.
Drama series:
"Breaking Bad"
:"Dexter"
"The Good Wife"
"Lost"
"Mad Men"
"True Blood"
Who Should Win: Yes, "Mad Men" is great and "Lost" had a lovely final season, but neither was as consistently good as "Breaking Bad." For my money, that's the best show on TV.

Who Will Win: However, expect a win for "Lost," which Emmy will likely want to send into the sunset with statuette -- if only for fear of retribution from the show's rabid fan base.
Comedy series: 
"Curb Your Enthusiasm"
"Modern Family"
"Glee"
"Nurse Jackie"
"The Office"
"30 Rock"
Who Should Win: A two-way race between "Modern Family" and "Glee." I think "Modern Family" should win...
Who Will Win: ... but "Glee" probably will win.